China Alumina Oxide Price Trend: Price has plunged by 25%
China's alumina prices in the spot market continued to plunge since middle January in 2025, by February 6th, the average alumina spot price is RMB 4140 per ton, compared with the RMB 5530 per ton in middle December 2024, the price has dropped by 25%.
The decline in alumina prices in the past two months can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Loose Supply SideCapacity Release and Resumption: Alumina production capacities in Shandong and Shanxi have commenced operations, involving nearly 2 million tons of capacity. Additionally, some capacities in Shanxi have resumed production. As of January 16, the national weekly operating rate of alumina capacity has risen to 87.25%, a relatively high level over the past year, with a significant expected increase in production.
Improved Raw Material Supply: The disruptions in bauxite shipments from Guinea have been resolved. Following the end of the rainy season, the volume of bauxite shipments from Guinea has shown an upward trend. By January 17, the weekly shipment volume from major ports in Guinea had risen to 3.8848 million tons, a relatively high level over the past year, ensuring continuous production and the commissioning of new capacities domestically.
Increased Overseas Supply: The spot supply of alumina overseas has improved, with prices continuing to fall to around $610, exerting downward pressure on domestic spot prices.
2. Weak Demand SideDecline in Non-Aluminum Demand: While metallurgical demand remains stable, non-aluminum demand has significantly declined and is not expected to recover until after the Spring Festival. With stagnant consumption recovery, the growth space on the demand side is limited, making it difficult to provide strong support for prices.
Weak Procurement Willingness: Electrolytic aluminum plants are not in a hurry to reduce production, but procurement volumes have decreased in the short term, limited to just essential needs, reflecting overall weak market consumption.
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